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An Environmental-Economic Modeling for Climate Change Policy
Keiji Ujikawa  1@  
1 : Yokohama National University

In recent years, countries have set emission reduction targets to address climate change. This study is the first attempt to verify the long-term feasibility of achieving emission reduction targets for multiple greenhouse gases in Japan by sector. This study applies System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) data and statistical frameworks and constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. Greenhouse gas and sector-specific emission reduction rates are set based on annual SEEA data. The results indicate that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from manufacturing, business services, and energy transition sectors, as well as hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride emissions, are projected to remain below the 2030 emission targets under a balanced growth scenario. If the capital accumulation rate increases, it is possible that emissions from the manufacturing and other service sectors will exceed the emission targets. However, CO2 emissions from the transportation and household sectors, and methane (CH4) and dinitrogen monoxide (N2O) emissions primarily from the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors, are projected to exceed the emission targets if current trends continue. In conclusion, policies need to focus on measures to reduce CO2 emissions from the transportation and household sectors, which exceed emission targets, and CH4 and N2O emissions from the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors. Furthermore, depending on changes in the capital accumulation rate and economic growth, CO2 emissions from the manufacturing and other sectors may exceed emission targets, indicating that continuous policy measures will be necessary.


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